DEVELOPING STRATEGIES FOR DISASTERS UTILIZING SIMULATIONS TO FORECAST AFTERMATH REQUIREMENTS

James Fogal

Notre Dame de Namur University

ABSTRACT 

There is a need for communities to be proactive in their planning on the impact from potential disasters on populations and infrastructures in order to best provide an adequate response. While there are a number of modeling and simulation techniques that have been used for the analytical evaluations of consequences from disaster events, this research looked specifically at models based on the use of aftermath predictors derived from epidemiological studies of prior disaster events combined with local population data. This paper presents the viability and gains afforded by this approach as well demonstrated how the applied use of simulation can be a used as a planning tool to better understand the effects caused from disasters occurring upon urban populations centers.